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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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