🔗 Share this article From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”